Friday, December 22, 2006
Sixers win the Iverson deal
Call me a contrarian or merely call me stupid, but I think the Sixers did as well as they could in this deal any may in fact be better with Andre Miller than Iverson.
1) Denver's deal was better than any other Philly would get.
Iverson's contract is huge; his contract is 9th highest in the league this year at $17mil and has 2 more guaranteed years at about $20million. There were very few teams that would want to make that type of commitment to an aging guard that relies on quickness and the ability to absorb contact. Every potential offer out there would have had Philly taking on large amounts of deadweight (Jaric's $7mil/year though '11 or Ratliff's $13mil/year through '08). Instead they have Joe Smith in the last year of his contract and Andre Miller making $8.5mil/year through 2009. While Minnesota and Boston could've offered sexier players such as Randy Foye, or Delonte West and Al Jefferson, I'd much rather have a proven commodity like Miller and large amounts of cap space. Furthermore, the prime pieces of the potential deals, Foye or West, play the same positions as Philly's young guys Iguodala and Carney.
There was also the rumblings that Billy King could have just kept Iverson for the full season and not traded him until the offseason, thus increasing the odds that they could have landed Greg Oden in the draft. This seems the wisest hypothetical situation, but not entirely realistic. It's hard to keep a fan base appeased if you admit that you are throwing away a season, especially when it would just increase the odds of the top draft spot (and there's no guarantee that Oden will come out anyways).
2) This 76er team is better with Andre Miller than Allen Iverson
There are very few basketball fans that don't enjoy watching Allen Iverson. He still has a great first-step and he is beloved for launching himself into the lane with no care for bodily harm. His cross-over to pull-up J is the nicest in the game. However, he also misses a lot of shots (>14 misses/game, 41% shooting) and turns the ball over at a very high rate (his 4.4 TO lead the league). His game also is predicated on having the ball in his hands. He is not one to run off screens. He's not even that good at the screen-and-roll.
The 76ers have slashers (Carney, Iguodala), post players (Webber) and shooters (Korver). What they need is someone who can create. Miller fills that role. While he doesn't scare anyone offensively, he's still quick enough to get to the bucket on almost all PGs in the league. He also has great vision and turns the ball over significantly less. His assist:turnover ratio is above 3 (compared to Iverson's under 2) and ranks 5th in the league. The improved ball movement should help Iguodala really come into his own. Furthermore, once Webber returns, they'll be able to run the offense through the low-post which should increase the number of open looks for guys.
Now I'm not being crazy and saying this trade will turn the Sixers around but with a line-up of Miller, Iguodala, Carney/Korver, Webber and Dalembert, they can make some noise in the East. I think they'll end up with about 32-33 victories which in the East will have them finish only 5 games out of the playoffs.
3) This Denver team better learn to like each other...
...because they'll be stuck together for a long time. Through 2009 they have $72million tied up in Iverson, Camby, Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Reggie Evans. Just as a note, the luxury tax level for 06-07 is about $65million. To be fair, the Knicks have ~$93 million tied up in 07-08 and 08-09 albeit for 14 players, not 6. This trade has severely limited their trading capabilities and made free agent signings practically impossible except for the exceptions.
So will this experiment work? I don't think so for a variety of reasons, the biggest being there's only one ball. The Nuggets currently average 85 shot attempts per game with Carmelo taking 24 of them. The addition of Iverson will cost the Nuggets 2-3 possessions/game given his increased turnovers and worse rebound rate. Iverson also currently averages 24 shots/game while Miller only averaged 11 on the Nuggets. Something is going to have to give. I think these shots are going to be taken from the emerging J.R. Smith, Nene, and Marcus Camby all of whom score more efficiently than Iverson. Iverson's teams have always run the smoothest when he's playing the 2, which is not an option in Denver unless Karl wants to have a Smurf backcourt with Iverson and Boykins (come to think of it, that'd be fun for a bit, until they both got posted up). I'm also not sure who gets the last shot in Denver. I'd give it Carmelo, but how will AI take to that? It's got to be hard to be "the man" your whole life and suddenly go to 2nd fiddle. If AI can surprise me and show us he's actually a legit point guard who can take smart shots and take care of the ball, then the Nuggets become more dangerous. I'm betting against that.
Ultimately if you're a Nugget fan, the best thing you can do is pray for Marcus Camby's health (he's their real MVP, btw). Over the past 2.5 seasons, the Nuggets are 90-33 with Camby and 17-47 (ouch) without the big man. If the Nuggets start losing, then things will start to get real interesting in Denver.
15 Comments:
MC,
I agree, the 76ers did "win" the Iverson trade. I think it was very important that they acquired a player with an expiring contract, as well as a solid veteran who not only can help the team but also have a positive influence on the younger players on the team. This team had no chance to win a title this year even with Iverson, so trading him makes a heck of a lot of sense.
No we have to see if they can adequatly rebuild this team. I imagine Billy King's job is on the line here, let's see if he can step up to the challenge. Not only with they most likely have a top 3 pick, but they also get two first round picks from Denver. Can this team draft well and turn this team around? IT certainly seems possible.
In the Easy Eastern Conference it seems like the rebuilding process can be a quick one if done right. Can the 76ers do that? We will see.
Yea but how can Andre Miller even help the Sixers when he is stuck in Denver?
http://www.protrade.com/content/DisplayArticle.html?sp=S99e73c9d-91c3-11db-ae10-9b376dca4404
Knowing my Sixers they won't be able to rebuild anytime soon. They traded Barkley and now they traded Iverson. Enough is enough.
Intriguing analysis, and partially true, but you can't ever truely say that someone "wins" a trade when they give up a superstar. I can't think of one trade involving a superstar in his prime that turned out well for the team trading the superstar. If you have one, let me know.
Phily didn't make out poorly by any means. I agree that getting Miller isn't all that bad, and the draft picks and expiring contracts aren't bad, but the bottom line is they traded a superstar and didn't get a dynamite youngster like J.R. Smith or Shaun Livingston back. That's not winning a trade.
Also, I think the Iverson-Melo combo will work better than you think. I don't know if you read Hollinger's latest column, but Melo isn't the type of player who scores while dominating the ball--he only does so now because he has nobody else to rely upon. He moves incredibly well without the ball and finishes plays extremely effectively.
As for Iverson dominating the ball, he had to with the type of guys around him in Philadelphia. While his supporting cast has gotten worse, his assists numbers and field goal percentage has gone up in the last two years. Last year was arguably his best statistical season across the board, and he was 30. This year, the same story is occuring. We also aren't factoring in Iverson's will, so you know that he's going to come out with an incredible amount of fire this year to prove his doubters wrong. I don't think there's going to be the same chemistry problems as people think.
Also, there were better offers out there. The Clippers could have (and did) offer some combination of Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, the expiring contract of Zeljko Rebraca, Cuttino Mobley, and two higher first-round picks.
In the NBA, superstars win titles. Only three teams have won without a megastar (2004 Pistons, 1979 Sonics, 1978 Bullets), and there have been tons of examples where ensemble teams that lost to superstar teams (Cavs to Bulls in the 90s, Blazers to Lakers and Spurs in late 90s, Kings to Lakers in early 00s, to name a few). So even though Devner is stuck in luxury tax mode, they had to take this chance. As such, I can't say that Phily won the trade.
Disagree completely. You are correct in saying Iverson misses shots and turns it over more, but he's got the ball in his hands a lot more than Miller did out of necessity. I'm a 76ers fan, but the rest of the team stinks. Iguodala and Korver are solid role players (at this point), Webber's on one leg, and Dalembert is no offensive threat. And they have no depth. If Iverson wasn't scoring, they'd lose. Which they've showed ever since he has stopped playing.
For a superstar still playing his best basketball the 76ers got a slightly above average PG who's signed just as long as Iverson was, an expiring contract, and two late-round draft picks. Not exactly an awe-inspiring package.
I think AI is a perfect fit in Denver, personally. I think AI and Carmelo can conform their games the little bit that will be necessary, and everyone else fits in well. AI is the best in the game at blowing by his defender and getting to the rim. Sometimes he passes off, sometimes he makes a shot, sometimes he draws loads of defenders and misses. However, those misses put guys in great position to offensive rebound (as their man is helping on Iverson), which fits perfectly with guys like Marcus Camby and especially Reggie Evans. That's why the Philly team that went to the Finals was so good... other guys were content to rebound and not look for their own shots, which I think the Denver big men will do. I really like Denver to play well at the end of the year when AI/Carmelo are used to playing with each other.
The Sixers had to trade AI for the draft picks alone. They weren't going to win crap with him on their team. They traded him now while his stock is still high. Good job Billy!
Prada -
A few superstars trades that seemed to work out recently for NBA teams include Grant Hill for Ben Wallace & Chucky Atkins and Baron Davis for Speedy Claxton & Dale Davis' expiring contract. Shaq for Lamar Odom and Caron Butler was pretty fair as well.
I'm not sure the Clippers were offering Maggette and if they were, the 2-3 spot is the last place the 76ers need players. Had the Clippers offered Livingston, I think LA would have been Iverson's destination.
Twins -
The fact is Iverson shoots a much poorer percentage and has a poorer assist:turnover ratio. Just because you have the ball in your hands doesn't mean you have to shoot it.
Don't knock Miller. He's just about a top-10 point guard and when you include durability (he's missed a total of 3 games in his now 8th season), he's easily top 10.
The Iverson-Anthony chemistry is going to be interesting. One or both are going to be shooting significantly less. Both are players that have always been "the man." It'll take a huge ego check and complete revamp of play for this to work.
Iverson's teams were there best when Iverson was playing the 2 with Eric Snow at the PG. It doesn't seem like a coincidence that his lowest turnover rate was the same year the Sixers made the playoffs. In Denver, Iverson is going to have to man the 1. I just don't have faith that Iverson can run an offense. He's never really had that responsibility and I don't think it's something you can learn at age 31.
One last note about the Philly finals team. They won their games because of defense. George Lynch, Dikembe Mutombo, Tyrone Hill, Eric Snow and Aaron McKie stifled offenses. This Denver team doesn't have that same type of defensive presence at the wings. Camby is phenomenal, but I don't really have faith in Anthony or Smith as on-the-ball defenders. Scoring was not a problem with the Nuggets. Defense was and I don't see AI rectifying that.
Points of contention:
1. The Hill for Wallace and Atkins trade didn't work out only because Hill got hurt.
2. Baron Davis was never a top tier superstar.
3. The Heat won the Shaq trade. They won a championship.
The Maggette point is fair, though. Still, Maggette is significantly better than anyone else Denver could offer, and he has a very affordable contract. The Sixers really needed ballplayers, even if you already have Iguodala, Carney, and Korver on the wing.
The one trade tossed around that was definitely offered was Cassell, Mobley, Maggette, and one of the picks for Iverson and Korver. I'm curious if you think that offer was better.
I'm not knocking Miller, it's just that he's 31 years old, same age as Iverson. I mean, what's the point of getting him in a deal? They're not going to the playoffs this year, and they don't look like a team that can seriously contend next year. What's the point of getting Miller? Miller's an incredible upgrade over Kevin Ollie at the point, but that takes them from a really bad team to a below average team. All that does is lessen draft position this year without benefitting in future years such as a younger player would do.
Iverson does average 7 assists per game. That's not too shabby w/r/t to running an offense. Iverson shoots a lower percentage, but he's such a more valuable offensive player than Miller because he gets to the line a ton. He got to the line an incredible 174 times through 15 games, which is almost 12 times a game. Aside from putting the others in foul trouble, that's just easy points because he's a solid FT shooter.
And I don't think this will take as much shots away from Carmelo so much as Earl Boykins. And that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Andre Miller will help get more players involved in the offense as he is a "natural" point guard, similar to Maurice Cheeks, the team's head coach. He will also help more in the development of the young draft picks than AI would, since Miller isn't a ball hog. Yes AI had assists but he still shot the shit out of the ball, something Miller won't do.
Prada -
I can't imagine the Clippers ever offered that deal. There's no way Cassell would accept that trade.
If I was Billy King, I wouldn't do it either. Cassell, Mobley and Maggette make the same amount of money as Iverson and Korver, so there's no relief there. Mobley is also signed through '10 which makes him a bit of dead money.
I'd rather take Miller, the picks and the money than the 3 Clippers.
http://www.clipsnation.com/story/2006/12/14/20111/695
It was definitely discussed.
That looks much more like a hopeful poster than any true source.
I wish I could also send you the e-mail thread we had in the SBNation basketball email group, but alas, I can't, so you'll have to take my word on this.
Clips Nation was tipped off by a source within the Clippers organization. I don't know any more than that.
Still, it shows it was legitimately discussed.
As further proof.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/clippers/la-sp-clippers16dec16,1,2403339.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-nba-clippe&ctrack=1&cset=true
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