WBRS Sports Blog

The best sport in the world, college basketball, is just getting underway, and with more talent in the college game than ever before, this year is going to be a ton of fun.

Let's break this thing down, 25-1, bottom of the rankings to top of the rankings. Keep in mind that these rankings are in order of what I think will happen at the end of the season. It's kind of hard to argue that Florida is not the best team at this moment, considering they have pretty much everyone back and they won last year, but it's much more up in the air as to whether they'll be the best team at the end of the season.

Without further ado, one man's Top 25 predictions:

25. Creighton
24. Xavier

Two of only three mid-majors on this list, and I'm not even sure you could classify Xavier as a mid-major. Last year was the year of the mid-major, but it's not going to continue this year. There was a significant talent gap in the power conferences last year after seeing more early entries in the 2005 draft than ever before, and with so many great newcomers coming in, that won't exist anymore. Mid-major teams will still be talented, but the power conferences will go back to normal this year.

That being said, both Creighton and Xavier are scary dangerous. Creighton nearly made the NCAA Tournament last season without all-league forward Nate Funk and point guard Josh Dotzler for huge chunks of the season. Both are back, and they join improving center Anthony Tolliver and a host of others. They should be the class of the Missouri Valley.

Xavier returns pretty much everyone from last year, but the addition of Oklahoma transfer Drew Lavendar is huge. Lavendar was an impact player at Oklahoma and he'll give Xavier an actual point guard, as opposed to the crap that was Johnny Wolf last season. They should pull a GW on the Atlantic 10 this year.

23. Michigan State

Three NBA draft picks are gone, and football star Matt Trannon's status is up in the air after football season, but Michigan State will be just as good as last year. Why? Last year, Michigan State was essentially the anti-Michigan State. They were soft on the boards, lax on defense, and short on depth. No matter how much the Big 3 guys did, it wasn't going to make Michigan State an elite team. Now, with less talent on the roster, Tom Izzo has no choice but to go back to the blue collar basketball that was the trademark of the program. With gritty point guard Drew Neitzel, a host of big bodies up front, and some fantastic wing freshman, the Spartans will be just fine.

22. Boston College

Personally, I think they're overrated coming into the year. Jared Dudley is a nice player, but he benefited so much from having Craig Smith occupy defenders on the block. They're also going to miss Louis Hinnant more than they think, because other than Sean Marshall and Tyrece Rice, they're very thin in the backcourt. I still think they'll be a tournament team with an outside chance at the Sweet 16 because Al Skinner is a fantastic coach, but they're no closer to taking the next step than before.

21. Nevada

This team was really good last year, and the only exposure most people got was when they laid an egg against Montana in the tournament. Nick Fazekas can really play, and Marcellus Kemp came into his own last year, adding a new dimension to the offense. The rest of their guys return, and the WAC will be down once again. Expect similar results from Nevada this season.

20. Memphis

They lose a lot of talent, but they'll still be right there. Andre Allen and freshman Willie Kemp are true point guards, unlike the departed Darius Washington. Chris Douglas-Roberts and Antonio Anderson are solid on the wings, and methinks Robert Dozier is poised for a breakout season. Still, you can't lose that much talent and not take a step back.

19. Tennessee

Chris Lofton returns, which is all you need to know. They'll miss C.J. Watson, but Duke Crews makes them stronger inside and Dane Bradshaw is a consumate role player. More importantly, Bruce Pearl will get the most out of them.

18. Georgetown

Another team I think is a little overrated. Don't get me wrong; Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green allow the Hoyas to have the league's best frontcourt. But at guard, they have Jonathan Wallace and...um...who else? They'll miss Ashanti Cook and Darrell Owens more than they're ever going to admit, and thus they should have a similar year to last year.

17. Georgia Tech

2007 will forever be known as the Season of the Freshman, and Georgia Tech got two of the best in small forward Thaddeus Young and point guard Javaris Critteon. Both those guys are going to be dynamite, especially Critteon, who will make everyone around him better. Combine those players with a host of returnees like Anthony Morrow and Ra'Sean Dickey, and Tech should be the third-best team in the ACC.

16. Pittsburgh

You may be asking, why so low Mike? What's going on here? Is this team not ranked in the top 5 in the country? My response is this. Yes, they lost only one player, but that one guy was so incredibly important to their team. Carl Krauser shot a lot of ill-idvised shots, but if you needed a bucket, he was there to get one. All their backcourt guys, especially Ronald Ramon and Antonio Graves, have become so accustomed to playing with Krauser that they can't be a #1 option on the perimeter. I'm skeptical that LeVance Fields can fill the void, meaning Pitt will simply be what they always are; a tough defensive team that ultimately can't score enough to be a real Final Four contender.

15. Texas A&M

Here's a team I really like. Other than Ronald Steele, there isn't a point guard in the country I'd rather have on my team than Acie Law. He manages the game so well and can break you down off the dribble when you have to. Beside him, Joseph Jones is the game's most underrated big man, and they have a host of players that play their roles effectively. They were one shot away from the Sweet 16 last year, and I expect them to be right there again.

14. Connecticut

This year's North Carolina. They have so many awesome newcomers that everyone will know about by the end of the year, and combined with rock-solid Jeff Adrien and promising A.J. Price, they'll be fine. Don't worry.

13. Wisconsin

I like everything about this team except Kammron Taylor, who kills the Badgers if he plays too much point guard. Other than him, I like Alandro Tucker, and added depth should help after a season of injuries. They're not going to be a title contender, however, unless Taylor learns to make better decisions with the ball. Ideally, they would find a true point to slide Taylor to the wing, but Bo Ryan has nobody to do that.

12. Marquette

While the adage that guards win games in March is based on an obselete that the best bigs jump straight to the NBA (which obviously can't happen now), Marquette still can win playing a Villanova style of basketball. Dominic James will emerge as a Big East player of the year threat, and combined with guys like Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeil, nobody will want to deal with the Golden Eagles.

11. Syracuse

Shocking revelation! Gerry McNamara actually hurt the Orangemen in the past two years! That's right, the shoot-first point guard launched too many crazy shots for the young Orange players to fully develop. In the Big East tournament, we can focus on McNamara's heroics, but the real reason they won was because guys like Terrence Roberts and Demetrius Nichols finally figured it out. Now, replace McNamara with a guy like Paul Harris, a Julius Hodge clone with uncanny basketball IQ, and everyone is going to be even better this season. With Roberts, Eric Devendorf, Nichols, Josh Wright, and Darryl Watkins joining Harris, this will be the season for Syracuse to win the Big East crown.

10. Texas

In 2003, Syracuse was a young team coming off an inconsistent season with tons of young unestablished talent. Then, Carmelo Anthony came to town and took the team all the way to a national title, making household names out of previous unknowns.

Why is this relevant? Here, in 2006, Texas is a team with tons of young, unestablished talent after losing Daniel Gibson, P.J. Tucker, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Brad Buckman. Joining the fold is Kevin Durant, the consensus #2 recruit in the country. Not only that, but he is basically the same type of athletic wing forward that Carmelo was.

Syracuse was slept on in the 02/03 preseason, and they won a title. Texas is being slept on this preseason. Don't make the same mistake again and underestimate the effect a special freshman can have.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

9. LSU

This SEC West race is going to be special, and as long as LSU has Glen Davis, they'll be right there in the mix. Davis' return, combined with the return of super sophomores Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple and the addition of Marquette transfer Dameon Mason, ensures LSU will be right there. The problem is at the point. Tack Minor is a turnover machine, and I don't think it's a coincidence that LSU was at its best last year when he wasn't in the lineup.

8. UCLA

I like Arron Afflalo, and Darren Collison and Lorenzo Matta will fill in for Jordan Farmar and Ryan Hollins alright. Getting Josh Shipp back should be huge as well. Despite this, I still think losing Farmar will hurt. He was tough and gritty despite being hurt all of last year, and they're never going to be able to re-create that. They'll still be good, but they aren't the class of the Pac-10 in my eyes.

7. Alabama

I had my doubts about this team coming into last year, but Ronald Steele proved me wrong. There is no question in my mind that he's the best point guard in the nation right now, and combined with bigs Jermario Davidson and Richard Hendrix, all Mark Gottfried has to do is fill in the blanks.

6. Duke

I hate Duke with a passion, and I hate them more than probably anyone on campus. But reports of their demise are significantly overstated. Josh McRoberts is back, and now that he's out of the shadow of Shelden Williams, I expect a 20-10 year out of him. Greg Paulus' injury hurts, but I never thought he was that great anyway, and it wouldn't shock me to see freshman Jon Scheyer fill in more effectively. Add in returnee DeMarcus Nelson and newcomers Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson, and Duke will be Duke. It pains me to say it, but I can't deny it.

5. Arizona

This happens every year, but I believe in this team. Every year, we put them high, and they tend to disappoint. I think this year will be different. Their problem last year, in my mind, was that Hassan Adams was thinking about the NBA and trying to prove to everyone that he could hit a jumper. Combine that with a problem child like Chris Rodgers, and it's no wonder they underachieved.

Now, both are gone. Mustafa Shakur has finally realized that Arizona is not merely a stop on his NBA career, and he morphed into a solid leader last year. Marcus Williams spurned the NBA, and replacing Adams with super freshman Chase Budinger is a trade I'd make any day. All that's left is finding a defensive stopper, as Virginia put up 93 on Arizona yesterday. If they can figure that out, this is a Final Four team.

4. Kansas

Kansas won last year because they played incredible defense, masking a mostly inefficient offense. With everyone back, you have to expect the scoring to increase, and the defensive effort will still be there. I'm worried about the lack of a true go-to-guy, but Kansas is right there with the top teams in the country.

3. North Carolina

No team has more talent, but I'm worried we may get a re-enactment of the UNC in 94 syndrome. That year, three major recruits in Rasheed Wallace, Jeff McInnis, and Jerry Stackhouse joined a reigning championship team returning all their key players. They were talented and won a ton of games, but the newcomers clashed with the veterans and Boston College upset them in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. I feel like this could happen again, but no matter what, UNC has a crapload of talent and the nation's best returning player in Tyler Hansbrough.

2. Florida

The last team to win a title and return all their starters was the 1997/98 Arizona Wildcats. Here's what happened to them that year.

With Mike Bibby, Miles Simon, Michael Dickerson, and Jason Terry leading the Wildcats, they dominate the regular season, earning the top overall seed in the tournament. In the Elite 8, they squared off against third-seeded Utah, led by Andre Miller and Michael Doleac. In that game, Rick Majerus decided not to contest the offensive boards, instead dropping as many as three defenders back to prevent the Arizona fast break from working. Utah ended up winning an ugly one and storming to the title game.

Florida isn't Arizona, and in fact, they're probably the opposite. But something about that run was too perfect. Teams are gunning for them, and someone will figure out a way to beat them in one tournament game. So, while I expect them to be the best team in the regular season, they will fall somewhere in the tournament, leaving this team...

1. Ohio State

...as your national champion.

I couldn't have said it any better than the Big Ten Wonk. Here's what he had to say.

Right now--mid-November--is the moment in the college hoops calendar when the overrating of individual talent at the expense of team performance is at its most egregious. And yet we do it every year, over and over: the preseason favorites look invincible. Their McDonald's All-American players are profiled ad nauseum. The favorites are unbeatable, on another level.

March is the opposite, of course. Win-or-go-home games played on neutral courts have a way of reminding us that this putative "different level" is much more a labor-saving device for our own individual attention spans than a true reflection of external reality.

And so in that spirit I want to say that I just don't believe Greg Oden's going to be as good as everyone's saying he's going to be.

I think he's going to be better. Much better.

But wait, there's more.

And now for the really scary part, as least as far as ten other Big Ten teams are concerned. Thad Matta's Ohio State teams already, pre-Oden, play outstanding perimeter defense--and that was with no shot-blocking in the post backing them up. (Matta says on his team "all five guys are going to guard the ball." All coaches talk like that. Matta's teams--with recruits he inherited--have for the most part played like it.) If the overlap between new arrivals buying into the Matta system and Oden's post-injury but pre-draft time is at all considerable, we may just see the best defense we've seen in the Big Ten since Michigan State in 2000.

Basically, the college game has never seen a force as dominant as Greg Oden, and considering the way Ohio State already defends well, that defense will be scary. Offensively, the Buckeyes relied on Big Ten player of the year Terrence Dials for the majority of their low post scoring, and Oden is astronomically better than him. The other members of the Thad Five should replace guys like Je'Kel Foster and J.J. Sullinger fine, leaving Ohio State with a significantly better version of the same framework than won the Big 10 for them last year. In the end, they'll be the best team in the country.

Thoughts? Fire back at me!