Friday, October 27, 2006
The REAL WBRS Sports Blog NBA Preview
If there's one thing that isn't getting enough hype on my radio show, Overtime (seriously, our agenda today is probably 100 percent baseball), it's the beginning of the NBA season. No league has more characters than the NBA, and no league is run more effectively than the NBA.
I wasn't going to post an actual preview, being that I'm pretty busy running Bullets Fever and writing profiles in the Justice about some wierd dude that runs a sports blog at some random liberal arts school outside of Boston.
[As a sidenote, since we are talking about a blog who's creator promotes it like no other, let me promote Bullets Fever for you. If you're looking for your one stop on the Wizards, Bullets Fever is the place for you. I participated in the NBA Blog Previews recently, which is an outstanding collection of team previews from the top team bloggers on the internet. If you want to really know about the NBA, check out the link.]
Alright, so where was I. Oh yeah, now I remember. I wasn't going to do this, but with Mike predicting a Clippers-Bulls final, I just had to jump in and throw some hard analysis down. As you've probably guessed, I'm not as high as most people are on the Clippers or the Bulls. I admire the boldness, and I enjoyed the preview, but let's look at all of this more carefully. I'm going to give you 5 offseason moves I liked, 5 I didn't like so much, 3 underrated teams, 3 overrated teams, and division previews and playoff predictions. Let's get the ride on!
5 moves I loved this offseason
1. Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets
They overpaid, yes. There's no way Peja is worth the type of money he is worth. But it's incredible how good a fit Stojakovic will be in New Orleans. Last year, the Hornets won 38 games with an offense that was one of the worst shooting teams in basketball. Only the Clippers shot a lower percentage from 3-point land, and only the Clippers shot fewer threes than the Hornets. For all of Chris Paul's accomplishments last year, imagine if he had someone who could shoot the rock. With all due respect to Desmond Mason and Kirk Snyder, you can't win when those are your starting wingmen. I expect Peja to get his game back and for the Hornets to be a dynamite offensive club.
2. Charlie Villanueva to the Bucks
Young bigs like Villanueva don't just grown on trees. I understand the motivation for Toronto to trade Villanueva when you already have Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani, but a better option would have been to hold on for him and try to go small in the frontcourt. Villanueva was inconsistent last year, but that's to be expected for a young big guy like him. For Milwaukee to be able to get a guy like that for T.J. Ford, who is severely overrated in my opinion, that's a major steal. With Bogut and Villanueva, the Bucks frontcourt is set for the next decade.
3. Shane Battier to the Rockets
Memphis should get out of this trade well, because Rudy Gay has the potential to be a superstar. However, I love this trade for Houston because you have to take into account the time frame. The Rockets are only going to have a certain amount of years until Tracy McGrady's back is messed up for good, so they have to acquire guys that can win now. Battier is a jack-of-all trades; the consumate role player. With stars established in T-Mac and Yao, the Rockets have to now work to get strong role players. Battier knocks down the open threes, shuts down the opposing team's top threat, and is still young enough to show more offensive improvement. If T-Mac and Yao stay relatively healthy, the Rockets will be right back at their 2005 level.
4. Anthony Johnson to the Mavericks
I'm shocked that Indiana was so willing to give up on a guy who was so good in the playoffs, especially considering how fragile Jamaal Tinsley is. Dallas struck out on Mike James, but I feel like Johnson is a much better fit. Although Devin Harris was awesome at times in the playoffs, he still is a relative unknown at the point. Johnson is perfect insurance for Harris in case he can't turn the corner and show consistency. He's a solid veteran who can run an offense and hit the big shots when necessary. Contrary to popular belief, the Mavericks were mostly a half-court team last year, playing at one of the league's slowest paces. Johnson fits in perfectly with that style and will add to Dallas' incredible bench.
5. DeShawn Stevenson to the Wizards
Alright, I'm biased. I understand. Here's why I love this move. Stevenson quietly had a really solid season in Orlando, averaging a career high in points and showing Bruce Bowen-like defensive ability. After rejecting the 3 year, 10 million dollar extension with Orlando, the Wizards happily scooped him up for the league minimum. This is exactly the type of guy Washington needs. Jared Jeffries was a tease; he couldn't guard shooting guards and was a really poor rebounder. Stevenson is a legitimate defensive stopper, and he's shown in camp that he can hit the open 17 footer that he'll get all season. As a comparison, the Clippers didn't take off last year until Quinton Ross stepped up as a really good defensive player. Stevenson will be that guy for the Wizards.
5 Moves I didn't like
1. Nene re-signs with Denver for 6 years and 60 million
This guy just ruptured his knee and hasn't played at all in a year in a half, so it makes perfect since to pay him 1/6 of your payroll a season! Seriously, what was Denver thinking. I understand that young bigs like Nene command a high price tag (see below), but I don't think too many teams were aiming to pay anywhere close to that much for this guy. By not understanding the market, the Nuggets cost the chance to get the shooter they desperately needed. Look for another disappointing, frustrating season for the Nuggets this season.
2. Tyson Chandler to the Hornets
I'm not so down on this because of the talent level necessarily. The Hornets needed a big guy badly and the price of P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith wasn't bad. The problem here boils down to salary. Chandler is owed 50 million for the next 5 years. New Orleans just signed Peja Stojakovic for 5 years and 64 million. In a couple years, Chris Paul will want to sign a max extension. You do the math. How will New Orleans be able to upgrade the team when those guys are sucking up nearly all of your payroll? If Chandler doesn't turn it around, I don't think too many teams will want him. I think New Orleans will be good this year, but they have very little salary cap flexibility, which will make it difficult to make the team better in the future.
3. T.J. Ford to the Raptors
See above blurb with Villanueva. The problem is that Ford looks a lot better than he actually is. He's way too sloppy with the ball and doesn't have a jump shot. His speed is going to be good with the Raptors, but he was losing crunch-time minutes to Charlie Bell last season. The Raptors have a decent young point guard in Jose Calderon, so why trade a promising big for Ford straight up? I wouldn't be surprised if Calderon is the starter by the end of the year.
4. Jared Jeffries to the Knicks
There's a reason I refer to Jeffries as "The Enigma" on Bullets Fever. He's long, athletic, and versatile, but he sucks on offense, sucks at rebounding, and is not very good at on-the-ball defense. Basically, he sucks at everything, and after sucking in a system that should be tailor-made to his strengths in DC, I don't think he's going to get any better. With all the small forwards/shooting guards on the Knicks roster, why sign Jeffries? There really was no point.
5. John Salmons to the Kings
This was the dumbest storyline of the offseason. Three teams (Sacramento, Phoenix, Toronto) are fighting over John freaking Salmons because they feel like he's a perfect fit for their system. Keep in mind that this is a guy who averaged 7 points a game coming off a horrendous Philly bench. There's no way Salmons is any better than a 10th man on a decent team. His decent stats are deceiving last year because he got so many unwarranted minutes. With Sacramento already having Kevin Marin, Francisco Garcia, and Quincy Douby, what purpose does Salmons serve anyway. Sacramento is heading for a fall this year.
[Notice how Ben Wallace isn't on either list. The Bulls overpaid for Wallace, and he's not going to solve all their problems, but after getting rid of Chandler, I like the move more. Swapping Chandler with Wallace will make the Bulls a lot better, even if they still have significant flaws offensively.]
Alright, so what teams do I like (other than the Wizards, of course)
1. Houston Rockets
There's no way the Rockets will be as unlucky as last year. I realize that McGrady's back and Yao's foot are potential problems for their careers, but I doubt either player will miss as much time as last year. Add in the addition of Battier, who will do wonders for this team, and you have a club that nobody wants to deal with. Bonzi Wells is a lunatic, but I have a feeling that he'll be kept in check after the embarrasment of this year's offseason. The one achilles heel is at the point, but if Jason Williams can turn into a strong floor leader, then so car Rafer Alston. Finally, remember the name Chuck Hayes. He was a rebounding machine last year, and with a hole at power forward, don't be surprised if he comes out of nowhere a la Udonis Haslem. Houston, if healthy, is a dark horse contender.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
It's a real travesty that LeBron James didn't win MVP last year. Other than LeBron, every single Cavaliers player had a horrible year. Larry Hughes missed half the year, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones suddenly forgot how to shoot, and Drew Gooden struggled with his consistency. Basically, everything other than LeBron was a disaster, yet the Cavaliers still won 50 games and nearly advanced to the Eastern Conference finals. If Hughes, Marshall, Jones, and Gooden simply get back to their career norms, the Cavaliers will win 60 games. Book it, mark it down!
3. New Orleans Hornets
I think New Orleans may have screwed themselves in the future, but I love this team for this year. I don't think anyone beyond San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston really improved this summer, so the 5 spot is New Orleans' for the taking. Chris Paul finally has a legitimate shooter in Stojakovic, and Chandler can't be any worse than the centers who played up front last year. If David West can duplicate his year, the Hornets could approach 50 wins.
What teams don't I like
1. Chicago Bulls
As I said earlier, I'm not down on the Wallace signing, and I don't doubt that Chicago will improve. But those who think this is a legitimate NBA title contender need to calm down for a second. The Bulls were a mediocre team for 5 months, and they turned it around due to a fairly easy schedule down the stretch and a good matchup against a Miami Heat team who hadn't played meaningful basketball for 2 months. The Wallace signing was a major coup, but only because they didn't mess up their cap flexibility doing so. The Bulls' defense and depth will keep them in every game, but in the new NBA, you need slashers who can get to the free throw line and put the other team in foul trouble. Nobody on the Bulls can do that, and unless someone can, the Bulls will struggle with offensive consistency. I say 48 wins or so and the 6 seed in the East.
2. Los Angeles Clippers
Last season was a fairytale ride for the Clippers, with a second-round appearance in the playoffs. With young guys like Shaun Livingston, Chris Kaman, and Quinton Ross, you'd expect that to continue, right? I'm not convinced. One element that is relatively consistent with teams that fall off after a run of success is age in the backcourt. I don't think Sam Cassell will be nearly as good as last year, and I'm concerned about Cuttino Mobley's age. I also don't think Elton Brand will be quite as good as last year, and I don't know whether Corey Maggette can ever be the player he once was. Ultimately, I see the Clippers in a group of a handful of teams fighting for the last couple playoff spots with 42-46 wins.
3. Sacramento Kings
Ugly. That's the best word to describe Sacramento's offseason. They came on really strong at the end of the year, but I think that's more of a factor of the energy that Ron Artest brought to the table. The biggest thing that will kill the Kings (and is already killing the Kings) is a lack of depth. Beyond Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Kenny Thomas, the Kings have nothing. With Bibby already out for a few weeks, there's literaly nobody who can step in and be even halfway-decent. Replacing Bonzi Wells with John Salmons is a significant downgrade, even when you factor in the chemistry issue. Sacramento will ultimately be slightly under .500 this season.
Alright, enough talk, let's get to the predictions
Alright, as you wish. Here's how it's going down.
Atlantic
1. New Jersey: 46-36
2. Boston: 40-42
3. New York: 33-49
4. Toronto: 30-52
5. Philadelphia: 27-55
Central
1. Cleveland: 57-25
2. Detroit: 51-31
3. Chicago: 48-34
4. Milwaukee: 38-44
5. Indiana: 35-47
Southeast
1. Miami: 53-29
2. Washington: 50-32
3. Orlando: 40-42
4. Atlanta: 33-49
5. Charlotte: 32-50
Southwest
1. San Antonio: 62-20
2. Dallas: 55-27
3. Houston: 54-28
4. New Orleans: 47-35
5. Memphis: 29-53
Northwest
1. Utah: 45-37
2. Denver: 39-43
3. Seattle: 35-47
4. Minnesota: 31-51
5. Portland: 18-64
Pacific
1. Phoenix: 58-24
2. LA Lakers: 44-38
3. LA Clippers: 43-39
4. Sacramento: 40-42
5. Golden State: 36-46
MVP: LeBron James
Coach: Jeff Van Gundy
Rookie: Randy Foye
Defensive: Andrei Kirilenko
Improved: Kevin Martin
Break-out Star: Al Jefferson
Trade: There won't be anything huge. Iverson will be traded in the offseason
First Coach to be Fired: Mike Fratello, Memphis. The athletes that Jerry West keeps bringing in just don't fit Fratello's system at all. He'll be fired very quickly, if you ask me.
By the way, Mike Montgomery was already fired and Don Nelson is coaching Golden State].
Wierdest Stat Line: Josh Smith gets 10 points, 10 blocks, and 15 rebounds while shooting 3-13 against the Timberwolves.
Wierdest Injury: Ron Arest breaks his jaw when a microphone strikes him in the mouth during a recording session.
Playoffs
Cleveland over Orlando in 5
Miami over Boston in 4
Detroit over Chicago in 7
Washington over New Jersey in 6
San Antonio over LA Clippers in 6
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 6
Dallas over New Orleans in 7
Houston over Utah in 4
Cleveland over Washington in 7
Miami over Detroit in 5
San Antonio over Houston in 7
Dallas over Phoenix in 6
Miami over Cleveland in 6
San Antonio over Dallas in 5
San Antonio over Miami in 6
Finals MVP: Tim Duncan
What do you guys think? Let me have it in the comments section.
I wasn't going to post an actual preview, being that I'm pretty busy running Bullets Fever and writing profiles in the Justice about some wierd dude that runs a sports blog at some random liberal arts school outside of Boston.
[As a sidenote, since we are talking about a blog who's creator promotes it like no other, let me promote Bullets Fever for you. If you're looking for your one stop on the Wizards, Bullets Fever is the place for you. I participated in the NBA Blog Previews recently, which is an outstanding collection of team previews from the top team bloggers on the internet. If you want to really know about the NBA, check out the link.]
Alright, so where was I. Oh yeah, now I remember. I wasn't going to do this, but with Mike predicting a Clippers-Bulls final, I just had to jump in and throw some hard analysis down. As you've probably guessed, I'm not as high as most people are on the Clippers or the Bulls. I admire the boldness, and I enjoyed the preview, but let's look at all of this more carefully. I'm going to give you 5 offseason moves I liked, 5 I didn't like so much, 3 underrated teams, 3 overrated teams, and division previews and playoff predictions. Let's get the ride on!
5 moves I loved this offseason
1. Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets They overpaid, yes. There's no way Peja is worth the type of money he is worth. But it's incredible how good a fit Stojakovic will be in New Orleans. Last year, the Hornets won 38 games with an offense that was one of the worst shooting teams in basketball. Only the Clippers shot a lower percentage from 3-point land, and only the Clippers shot fewer threes than the Hornets. For all of Chris Paul's accomplishments last year, imagine if he had someone who could shoot the rock. With all due respect to Desmond Mason and Kirk Snyder, you can't win when those are your starting wingmen. I expect Peja to get his game back and for the Hornets to be a dynamite offensive club.
2. Charlie Villanueva to the Bucks
Young bigs like Villanueva don't just grown on trees. I understand the motivation for Toronto to trade Villanueva when you already have Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani, but a better option would have been to hold on for him and try to go small in the frontcourt. Villanueva was inconsistent last year, but that's to be expected for a young big guy like him. For Milwaukee to be able to get a guy like that for T.J. Ford, who is severely overrated in my opinion, that's a major steal. With Bogut and Villanueva, the Bucks frontcourt is set for the next decade.
3. Shane Battier to the Rockets
Memphis should get out of this trade well, because Rudy Gay has the potential to be a superstar. However, I love this trade for Houston because you have to take into account the time frame. The Rockets are only going to have a certain amount of years until Tracy McGrady's back is messed up for good, so they have to acquire guys that can win now. Battier is a jack-of-all trades; the consumate role player. With stars established in T-Mac and Yao, the Rockets have to now work to get strong role players. Battier knocks down the open threes, shuts down the opposing team's top threat, and is still young enough to show more offensive improvement. If T-Mac and Yao stay relatively healthy, the Rockets will be right back at their 2005 level.
4. Anthony Johnson to the Mavericks
I'm shocked that Indiana was so willing to give up on a guy who was so good in the playoffs, especially considering how fragile Jamaal Tinsley is. Dallas struck out on Mike James, but I feel like Johnson is a much better fit. Although Devin Harris was awesome at times in the playoffs, he still is a relative unknown at the point. Johnson is perfect insurance for Harris in case he can't turn the corner and show consistency. He's a solid veteran who can run an offense and hit the big shots when necessary. Contrary to popular belief, the Mavericks were mostly a half-court team last year, playing at one of the league's slowest paces. Johnson fits in perfectly with that style and will add to Dallas' incredible bench.
5. DeShawn Stevenson to the Wizards
Alright, I'm biased. I understand. Here's why I love this move. Stevenson quietly had a really solid season in Orlando, averaging a career high in points and showing Bruce Bowen-like defensive ability. After rejecting the 3 year, 10 million dollar extension with Orlando, the Wizards happily scooped him up for the league minimum. This is exactly the type of guy Washington needs. Jared Jeffries was a tease; he couldn't guard shooting guards and was a really poor rebounder. Stevenson is a legitimate defensive stopper, and he's shown in camp that he can hit the open 17 footer that he'll get all season. As a comparison, the Clippers didn't take off last year until Quinton Ross stepped up as a really good defensive player. Stevenson will be that guy for the Wizards.
5 Moves I didn't like
1. Nene re-signs with Denver for 6 years and 60 million This guy just ruptured his knee and hasn't played at all in a year in a half, so it makes perfect since to pay him 1/6 of your payroll a season! Seriously, what was Denver thinking. I understand that young bigs like Nene command a high price tag (see below), but I don't think too many teams were aiming to pay anywhere close to that much for this guy. By not understanding the market, the Nuggets cost the chance to get the shooter they desperately needed. Look for another disappointing, frustrating season for the Nuggets this season.
2. Tyson Chandler to the Hornets
I'm not so down on this because of the talent level necessarily. The Hornets needed a big guy badly and the price of P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith wasn't bad. The problem here boils down to salary. Chandler is owed 50 million for the next 5 years. New Orleans just signed Peja Stojakovic for 5 years and 64 million. In a couple years, Chris Paul will want to sign a max extension. You do the math. How will New Orleans be able to upgrade the team when those guys are sucking up nearly all of your payroll? If Chandler doesn't turn it around, I don't think too many teams will want him. I think New Orleans will be good this year, but they have very little salary cap flexibility, which will make it difficult to make the team better in the future.
3. T.J. Ford to the Raptors
See above blurb with Villanueva. The problem is that Ford looks a lot better than he actually is. He's way too sloppy with the ball and doesn't have a jump shot. His speed is going to be good with the Raptors, but he was losing crunch-time minutes to Charlie Bell last season. The Raptors have a decent young point guard in Jose Calderon, so why trade a promising big for Ford straight up? I wouldn't be surprised if Calderon is the starter by the end of the year.
4. Jared Jeffries to the Knicks
There's a reason I refer to Jeffries as "The Enigma" on Bullets Fever. He's long, athletic, and versatile, but he sucks on offense, sucks at rebounding, and is not very good at on-the-ball defense. Basically, he sucks at everything, and after sucking in a system that should be tailor-made to his strengths in DC, I don't think he's going to get any better. With all the small forwards/shooting guards on the Knicks roster, why sign Jeffries? There really was no point.
5. John Salmons to the Kings
This was the dumbest storyline of the offseason. Three teams (Sacramento, Phoenix, Toronto) are fighting over John freaking Salmons because they feel like he's a perfect fit for their system. Keep in mind that this is a guy who averaged 7 points a game coming off a horrendous Philly bench. There's no way Salmons is any better than a 10th man on a decent team. His decent stats are deceiving last year because he got so many unwarranted minutes. With Sacramento already having Kevin Marin, Francisco Garcia, and Quincy Douby, what purpose does Salmons serve anyway. Sacramento is heading for a fall this year.
[Notice how Ben Wallace isn't on either list. The Bulls overpaid for Wallace, and he's not going to solve all their problems, but after getting rid of Chandler, I like the move more. Swapping Chandler with Wallace will make the Bulls a lot better, even if they still have significant flaws offensively.]
Alright, so what teams do I like (other than the Wizards, of course)
1. Houston Rockets There's no way the Rockets will be as unlucky as last year. I realize that McGrady's back and Yao's foot are potential problems for their careers, but I doubt either player will miss as much time as last year. Add in the addition of Battier, who will do wonders for this team, and you have a club that nobody wants to deal with. Bonzi Wells is a lunatic, but I have a feeling that he'll be kept in check after the embarrasment of this year's offseason. The one achilles heel is at the point, but if Jason Williams can turn into a strong floor leader, then so car Rafer Alston. Finally, remember the name Chuck Hayes. He was a rebounding machine last year, and with a hole at power forward, don't be surprised if he comes out of nowhere a la Udonis Haslem. Houston, if healthy, is a dark horse contender.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
It's a real travesty that LeBron James didn't win MVP last year. Other than LeBron, every single Cavaliers player had a horrible year. Larry Hughes missed half the year, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones suddenly forgot how to shoot, and Drew Gooden struggled with his consistency. Basically, everything other than LeBron was a disaster, yet the Cavaliers still won 50 games and nearly advanced to the Eastern Conference finals. If Hughes, Marshall, Jones, and Gooden simply get back to their career norms, the Cavaliers will win 60 games. Book it, mark it down!
3. New Orleans Hornets
I think New Orleans may have screwed themselves in the future, but I love this team for this year. I don't think anyone beyond San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston really improved this summer, so the 5 spot is New Orleans' for the taking. Chris Paul finally has a legitimate shooter in Stojakovic, and Chandler can't be any worse than the centers who played up front last year. If David West can duplicate his year, the Hornets could approach 50 wins.
What teams don't I like
1. Chicago Bulls As I said earlier, I'm not down on the Wallace signing, and I don't doubt that Chicago will improve. But those who think this is a legitimate NBA title contender need to calm down for a second. The Bulls were a mediocre team for 5 months, and they turned it around due to a fairly easy schedule down the stretch and a good matchup against a Miami Heat team who hadn't played meaningful basketball for 2 months. The Wallace signing was a major coup, but only because they didn't mess up their cap flexibility doing so. The Bulls' defense and depth will keep them in every game, but in the new NBA, you need slashers who can get to the free throw line and put the other team in foul trouble. Nobody on the Bulls can do that, and unless someone can, the Bulls will struggle with offensive consistency. I say 48 wins or so and the 6 seed in the East.
2. Los Angeles Clippers
Last season was a fairytale ride for the Clippers, with a second-round appearance in the playoffs. With young guys like Shaun Livingston, Chris Kaman, and Quinton Ross, you'd expect that to continue, right? I'm not convinced. One element that is relatively consistent with teams that fall off after a run of success is age in the backcourt. I don't think Sam Cassell will be nearly as good as last year, and I'm concerned about Cuttino Mobley's age. I also don't think Elton Brand will be quite as good as last year, and I don't know whether Corey Maggette can ever be the player he once was. Ultimately, I see the Clippers in a group of a handful of teams fighting for the last couple playoff spots with 42-46 wins.
3. Sacramento Kings
Ugly. That's the best word to describe Sacramento's offseason. They came on really strong at the end of the year, but I think that's more of a factor of the energy that Ron Artest brought to the table. The biggest thing that will kill the Kings (and is already killing the Kings) is a lack of depth. Beyond Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Kenny Thomas, the Kings have nothing. With Bibby already out for a few weeks, there's literaly nobody who can step in and be even halfway-decent. Replacing Bonzi Wells with John Salmons is a significant downgrade, even when you factor in the chemistry issue. Sacramento will ultimately be slightly under .500 this season.
Alright, enough talk, let's get to the predictions
Alright, as you wish. Here's how it's going down.
Atlantic
1. New Jersey: 46-36
2. Boston: 40-42
3. New York: 33-49
4. Toronto: 30-52
5. Philadelphia: 27-55
Central
1. Cleveland: 57-25
2. Detroit: 51-31
3. Chicago: 48-34
4. Milwaukee: 38-44
5. Indiana: 35-47
Southeast
1. Miami: 53-29
2. Washington: 50-32
3. Orlando: 40-42
4. Atlanta: 33-49
5. Charlotte: 32-50
Southwest
1. San Antonio: 62-20
2. Dallas: 55-27
3. Houston: 54-28
4. New Orleans: 47-35
5. Memphis: 29-53
Northwest
1. Utah: 45-37
2. Denver: 39-43
3. Seattle: 35-47
4. Minnesota: 31-51
5. Portland: 18-64
Pacific
1. Phoenix: 58-24
2. LA Lakers: 44-38
3. LA Clippers: 43-39
4. Sacramento: 40-42
5. Golden State: 36-46
MVP: LeBron James
Coach: Jeff Van Gundy
Rookie: Randy Foye
Defensive: Andrei Kirilenko
Improved: Kevin Martin
Break-out Star: Al Jefferson
Trade: There won't be anything huge. Iverson will be traded in the offseason
First Coach to be Fired: Mike Fratello, Memphis. The athletes that Jerry West keeps bringing in just don't fit Fratello's system at all. He'll be fired very quickly, if you ask me.
By the way, Mike Montgomery was already fired and Don Nelson is coaching Golden State].
Wierdest Stat Line: Josh Smith gets 10 points, 10 blocks, and 15 rebounds while shooting 3-13 against the Timberwolves.
Wierdest Injury: Ron Arest breaks his jaw when a microphone strikes him in the mouth during a recording session.
Playoffs
Cleveland over Orlando in 5
Miami over Boston in 4
Detroit over Chicago in 7
Washington over New Jersey in 6
San Antonio over LA Clippers in 6
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 6
Dallas over New Orleans in 7
Houston over Utah in 4
Cleveland over Washington in 7
Miami over Detroit in 5
San Antonio over Houston in 7
Dallas over Phoenix in 6
Miami over Cleveland in 6
San Antonio over Dallas in 5
San Antonio over Miami in 6
Finals MVP: Tim Duncan
What do you guys think? Let me have it in the comments section.
15 Comments:
I've got a feeling the Houston Rockets will be like the Arizona Cardinals this year. Lots of preseason hype in all of the previews, only to fall short once the season actually begins. Tho we unfortunately won't be treated to any Denny Green-like outbursts from Jeff Van Gundy since Davin Stern had Van Gundy's voicebox removed in May of last year.
Here are my thoughts...
1. Bullets Fever is a great blog!
2. Peja to the Hornets was a great move for that franchise. This team would certainly be a very good team in the East, but the West is so tough.
3. The Charlie V. for TJ Ford trade really worked out well for both teams. CV is very good and the Raptors wanted a solid PG.
4. I am not drinking the Rockets kool-aid. Every year they say "they have Yao and T-Mac", but how many years can they both actually stay healthy?
5. I am curious how much Anthony Johnson will contribute this year to the Mavs. It certainly is nice to know you have a guy on your bench who can put up 40 on a given night.
6. Nene and Tyson Chandler are both awful...enough said about them.
7. The Atlantic Div. still sucks.
8. The Cavs are good and Lebron is getting better, but they still haven't added the Pippen type player Lebron needs to win a title.
9. Mavs will win the West and Houston won't win 54 games.
10. The Clippers are better than you think.
Now my picks...
West Conference Finals
Mavs over Spurs
Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland over Miami
NBA Finals
Mavs over Cavs
MVP - Lebron James
Lots of great stuff... I'm in the middle of my previews, so I won't give my title pick ;), but here's all my other thoughts.
- Very much agreed about Jeffries being a bad signing for the Knicks. He's ok defensively, but he's worthless offensively and was not worth what the Knicks paid for him.
- I have to totally disagree with you about the Hornets. I think they were way over their heads last year. Peja is good in the short run, and Chris Paul is unbelievablly good, butI don't see them making the playoffs. I think their win total will be similar to last year... around .500, fighting for a spot but ultimately missing out in the West.
- Love love love the Cavs... LeBron is the best in the business, and the other guys can't help but improve.
- If McGrady stays healthy/happy, Rockets are a contender in the West. Yao was great at the end of last year, and Battier and Bonzi provide good depth, scoring, and all-around play. When healthy, I think the Rockets may be the 4th best team in the West.
By the way, I can't remember, was the NBA playoff format changed this year? As in, division winners aren't guaranteed the top 3 seeds?
A couple responses:
(As an aside, Scoop Jackson picked the Rockets to finish 1st in the West. That's right-ahead of San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix. This is the same dude who picked the Nets to win the title and the Warriors to be really good last year. That worries me a bit.)
Speaking of the Rockets, I think most of you guys have a short memory. Yao and T-Mac played all the time together in 2005, and despite having a horrendous surrounding cast, they won 54 games and nearly beat Dallas in Round 1.
T-Mac played in at least 67 games every season from 2000-2005, and it's only recently that he's gained the reputation as a fragile player. Does it mean he will play in 82 games? Probably not, but I doubt he'll miss half the season again. 60 games, given his history, seems pretty reasonable.
Yao's injuries seem to be of the fluke variety--toes, toenails, etc. Those aren't the type of things that should bother him much this season.
Last year, when the two played at the same time, the Rockets were a really good team. Even if they aren't the most durable people around, there's no way they play in as few games together as they did last year. Combine that with really strong upgrades in the supporting cast (Battier, Bonzi, Kirk Snyder, the new Greek guy), and they will be dynamite.
Re-New Orleans. Twins makes good points, and based on their point differential last year, they significantly overachieved. My pick for them to win 47 games is more of a factor of my skepticism of the second tier of the Western Conference (behind Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Houston). I'm not so high on the Clippers, the Lakers kind of stayed put, and I think Denver and Sacramento got worse. New Orleans should have a season like the Clippers did last year, but then cap problems will set them back.
Finally, what LeBron really needs is a healthy Larry Hughes. LeBron is not Jordan, and as such, I don't think we should say he needs a "Pippen." What LeBron needs is a gritty guard who can defend opposing twos and provide strong shooting. While Hughes isn't the shooter, he fits the other descriptions. His health will be the key to Cleveland's season.
Finally, the playoff format is changed so that division winners are guaranteed a top 4 seed instead of a top 3 seed. Under the new provisions, the Nuggets would have played Memphis in Round 1, Phoenix would have played the Clippers, and Dallas would have played the Lakers. In the East, the Cavs would have played the Pacers and New Jersey would have played Washington. Imagine how differently things would have turned out if those were the matchups.
Ah thanks... I thought there was a change, but I couldn't remember what it was. Definitely digging that new format more.
The Clippers are legit. Trust me. They have a stud front-court, veteran backcourt and have one of the deepest benches in the league that will allow Dunleavy to mix-and-match parts to match-up with any team in the league. Also, as a Los Angeles native, there is no way that the Lakers have a better season than the Clippers. The Lakers may not even make the playoffs this season.
As for your critique of Chicago? Somewhat laughable. Ben Gordon, Andres Nocioni and Luol Deng are all slashing types who can get other teams in foul trouble. I'd watch for Tyrus Thomas also to cause lots of problems. The only reason that the Bulls lost last season to the Heat was becuase Chandler kept getting into foul trouble and there was no one to deal with Shaq. Adding Wallace and Brown should negate Shaq and help take care of pretty much any Eastern Conference big in the league.
Lastly, TJ Ford is a stud and Charlie V is bipolar. I love that trade for Toronto. Ford is Tony Parker if Parker looked to pass more than shoot. Charlie V is a very talented player, but he's extremely inconsistent. I think it was a good all-around trade as both teams dealt from strength for weakness, but in a few years everybody is going to think Toronto got the better of it.
Let me respond to these one-by-one.
Clippers: First of all, any argument that includes the phrase "trust me" tends to lack substance. Notwithstanding this, one can certainly make a legitimate argument that the Clippers will be better. If you ask me, I think the Clippers will be a strong playoff team for a very long time. However, I think they take a small step back last year. Last year, they got a career year out of Elton Brand, a shockingly great performance from Sam Cassell, and a come-out-of nowhere performance from Quinton Ross.
As effective as Brand is, I don't see him being as good this season based on the "fluke year" rule, which dictates that there's a very good chance he falls off a bit this year.
With Cassell, I think he falls off significantly this year. He's pushing 38, and he fell off a lot in his second year in Minnesota. With Shaun Livingston, that's not a big deal, but I don't think Livingston is quite good enough to be more than a 20-25 minute part-time starter.
Basically, I think the young players aren't quite good enough to carry the team yet, and the older players are getting old fast. I see this year as being a bit of a down year, but the Clippers will be good for a while.
With Chicago, there's no way you could be more wrong. Last season, the Bulls had the second-worst free throw rate in the NBA. Their opponents shot 500 more free throws than they did last year, which is an average of more than 6 a game. With Wallace around, I feel like the Bulls will allow less free throws, but they still didn't do anything to get a slasher.
Kirk Hinrich was the only player on the team who even shot more than 300 free throws on the season. By comparison, LeBron James shot 814 free throws, Dwayne Wade shot 803, and even guys like Gilbert Arenas and Chauncey Billups, who are known as being jump shooters, shot more than 500 on the season. Chicago has a very disciplined offense in the mold of Flip Saunders' offense in Detroit, but even Detroit was able to get enough free throws to have a consistent offense. Unless the Bulls find that guy, they will have games where they shoot well and games where they won't. When the shots aren't falling, the Bulls have no way of generating offense.
The Bulls made a huge mistake by giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. Smith could have become the slasher they desperately need. Thomas is a promising young player, but his offensive ability primairly consists of rebounds and dunks at this point. He's not a slasher in any way.
Don't make the mistake of judging Chicago on their 6 game series against the Heat. That was a small sample size. Eventually, the Bulls' lack of offense did them in just as much as a lack of strong big men.
Finally, I disagree with Ford. Villanueva is inconsistent, but he is a 20 year old big man, after all. He's supposed to be inconsistent. This trade reminds me of the Rasheed Wallace for Rod Strickland trade back in 1996. In his rookie season, Wallace was an inconsistent player that showed flashes of stardom. Needing a point guard, the Bullets traded him for declining Rod Strickland. This trade re-ignited the Blazers and they were a legitimate title contender throughout the end of the 1990s. Meanwhile, Strickland had one good year, but then faded.
Ford is much younger than Strickland, but with a spinal cord injury already behind him, he brings an injury risk Strickland never had. Saying that Ford is a better version of Tony Parker is simply ludicrious. Parker is a dynamic offensive force that uses his speed effectively, especially in the halfcourt. Ford is a fast player that doesn't know how to use his speed. Parker led the league in field goal percentage last year as a point guard, while Ford shot 41 percent from the field. Parker played every key minute for San Antonio last year, while Ford lost crunch-time minutes to Charlie Bell at times. Ford has a small advantage in assists, but that's it. With Ford only a year younger than Parker, you can't even say he'll improve more. I'm not sure why you think Ford is a dignified version of Parker.
I'm not going to discount the possibility that Ford will improve in a more up-tempo system, but this was a really dumb trade. Toronto panicked and traded a potential star big man for an inconsistent, overrated point guard. I wouldn't be surprised if Jose Calderon ends the year as the starter. Meanwhile, Villanueva will break out either this year or next and will be Rasheed Wallace without the character problems.
"Chandler is owed 50 million for the next 5 years."
Wow - you took every single thing wrong with the current state of basketball, and distilled into 10 words!
Yes the Spurs can win it all, but they need everyone to be healthy. If Duncan is hurt like he was last year it will be much more difficult to win a title.
To hammer home a point I made about the Bulls in my last comment, this is pretty crazy.
Last year, in only 47 games, Tracy McGrady shot more free throws than Kirk Hinrich.
If you needed any more proof that the Bulls don't get to the line enough, that should do it.
Great preview! I think you might be a little hard on the Raptors getting Ford. I know he hasn't been too consistent, but don't forget about the serious injury he had that put him out for a year. He showed flashes last year after a long layoff. I know he isn't a premier point, but he's still young. I just don't think the Raptors getting him is in the bottom 5 off season moves. I agree the Rockets could be dangerous. The Mavs really improved the bench, especially with Johnson. The Nugs are crazy to pay Nene that much, but watch out for Melo's "breakout" year this season. Still don't think the East is can compete from top to bottom with the West but they're getting better. Can't wait for Tuesday.
Let's take a look at the teams that got to the line last season with their corresponding records:
Top 5 teams with the most FT attempts:
1) New York Knicks (23-59)
2) Washington Wizards (42-40)
3) Utah Jazz (41-41)
4) Philadelphia 76ers (38-44)
5) Dallas Mavericks (60-22)
Collective record (204-206)
Bottom 5 teams by FT attempts:
1) Phoenix Suns (54-28)
2) San Antonio Spurs (63-19)
3) Minnesota Timberwolves (33-49)
4) Portland Trailblazers (21-61)
5) Detroit Pistons (64-18)
Collective record (235- 175)
The best teams at getting to the line: 2 games under .500
The worst: 60 games over .500
My point: You may be slightly overestimating the importance of getting to the line.
Don't discount Chicago.
Maybe the Celtics, if they can get solid contributions from Gerald Green, Tony Allen and Al Jefferson to compliment PP, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kendrick Perkins, will win 45-48 games and win the Atlantic. It still sucks, but maybe. If they do, they can win a first-round matchup.
I think they'll be a surprise team this year.
Woah this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. I disagree with almost everything that this guy says, I'm wondering if he even watches basketball. I'm not going into depth on anything, because that would take much longer than I'd like.
ya he does faggot. the spurs already got te title because tim duncan is back and that tony parker guy LOOL abnd eva lneigoerya. t.j. ford needs to go back to college cuz neck injuries but charlie villanwayeva is better and that trade was lobsided tj ford just gets liek 10 pts 10 assists and isn't fast and is small. then kevin garnet, dwight howerd, christopher bosh will face doom from charlie villanwayva cuz and the milwaukee buckeroos becuz they rock and michel reds. i agreen that chris poll is a filthy nigger thow
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