Sunday, August 06, 2006
Fantasy Football - #1 Pick?
The NFL season is just around the corner and with that comes Fantasy Football. There is much debate as to who should be the first pick in Fantasy Football drafts. So my question is to you, the reader, if you had the first pick in the draft who would you select? Here are some of the potential candidates...
Larry Johnson- This guy isn't a proven fantasy stud but last year this backup RB turned starter was an absolute freak. Once Priest went down and LJ took over in week 9, he spent the rest of the season as the featured back in Kansas City, averaging just over 150 ypg and crossed the goalline on 16 different occasions. Even Baby Matrix, aka Reggie Bush, advocates selecting Johnson #1 overall. The biggest question surrounding Larry is the fact that his All-Pro left tackle Willie Roaf is retiring. Can LJ succeed without big Willie? Is he worthy of the number 1 pick in the draft?
Shaun Alexander- This is perhaps the safest #1 pick in the draft. Alexander was the most dependable running back in the NFL last season, scoring in all but two games and going over 100 yards in 12 of his 16 games played. Is there any doubt that Alexander can't have a similar year to last season? Perhaps...If you have seen the cover of Madden's NFL 2007 game, you will notice Shaun Alexander is on the cover! The Madden curse is a real thing. Don't believe me? Just ask Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Marshall Faulk and Michael Vick. All of those guys sustained serious injuries after being on the cover.
LaDainian Tomlinson- LT is Mr. Durability. The man has only missed one game over his last five seasons. You know you will get about 1500 yards from him and 16 touchdowns. With Drew Brees departing SD, LT will become even more of the focal point of the Chargers' offense, if that is even possible. I expect defenses to consistently put eight men in the box, daring Philip Rivers to try to beat them. Can LT produce with that kind of attention?
Peyton Manning- After producing the greatest individual statistical season in NFL history, Peyton Manning came back down to earth last year. Although his season was still great for a quarterback, it wasn't worthy of a #1 pick. Manning has to have another 2004 season in 2006? Probably not, but he has a better chance now that Edgerrin James is no longer a Colt.
So, who should go #1?
7 Comments:
I'm in the minority here, but I'd take LDT. With the #1 overall fantasy pick, you should be looking to get a sure thing. Larry Johnson certainly has unlimited upside, but do you want to be the guy stuck with him if he struggles this season? Last year, everyone seemed to be jumping all over the Willis MacGahee bandwagon after he finished the season strong, but he ended up going out and having a terrible season. I don't expect Johnson to have as bad a season as MacGahee did, but I sure as hell don't want to be the owner who took him #1, only to see him have a disappointing season. I'd take LDT over Alexander because the loss of Steve Hutchinson really concerns me. In addition, Alexander is already 31, and I don't want to be the guy stuck with him when he completely falls off.
Tomlinson is my guy because he's the most reliable. He's only 27 years old and has been remarkably consistent, even as his surrounding cast has changed. Last year, even while San Diego's passing game struggled, Tomlinson put up huge numbers week after week. The biggest thing holding Tomlinson back has been a lack of carries as compared to the other two, but with Phillip Rivers growing into the position, I expect the Chargers to lean more heavily on Tomlinson than usual. I expect Tomlinson to have his best season of his career next year. He's going to approach 2,000 rushing yards and 2500 total yards with 18-22 TDs. That's definetly 1st pick quality.
I've been a Tomlinson guy in the past, but I think I've moved on to KC. They'll be balanced, still have a good 0-Line, and LJ was just so good at the end of the year...
You can't go wrong with Alexander (should get lots of TDs even without Hutch), Johnson, or Tomlinson (most complete back)... but I'd slightly lean for Johnson.
goota be LT w/ all those receiving yards too.
Like I said, take LJ!
LT certainly has been consistent in the past. You know with LT you won't get a bust. However, looking at the Kansas City offense, the running back in that system has been a fantasy stud the past four or five years, whether it was Priesty or LJ last year. Why will this year be any different?
I'm not taking LJ. I'm giving Alexander the edge right now, and I'd take LT in a hearbeat if Shaun isn't still available.
I think we can assume from this debate that there isn't a clear cut number 1 pick. I guess this is a good thing that there are three stud RB's, unless you have the fourth pick in the draft...which I do!
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