WBRS Sports Blog

With the United States out of the World Cup, the NBA season finished, and baseball season about to suffer from the dog days of summer, there isn't so much sports fans can look forward to during this time. One event that is coming up next week for salvation is the NBA Draft. Like Bill Simmons the Sports Guy, I believe the NBA Draft is the most underrated event in sports. We get to hear the ESPN gang annoint Saer Sene as the second coming of Dikembe Mutumbo, Andrea Bargnani as Dirk Nowitzki II, and Randy Foye as the next Chauncey Billups. We get to hear phrases like "upside," "topside," "motor," "wingspan," and my personal favorite, "tremendous upside potential." Unlike the NFL Draft, there is a grandour of the unknown. Nobody has seen guys like Sene, Bargnani, Thabo Sefolosha (who?), or Sergio Rodriguez (who?) play, but we're still evaluating them. Best of all, it's 2 rounds, one night, 5 minutes a pick. And oh the unintentional comedy.

This year is shaping up to be one of the most interesting drafts in recent memory. For the first time, there are no can't miss prospects. There are no Tim Duncans, LeBron James, Patrick Ewings, Shaquille O'Neals, or Chris Pauls. Every top prospect has a flaw. Andrea Bargnani is too soft, Adam Morrison too slow, LaMarcus Aldridge too skinny, Tyrus Thomas too raw, Rudy Gay too passive, and Brandon Roy too unspectacular.

But does this mean we'll see a repeat of 2000, where your rookie of the year was the immortal Mike Miller? I don't think so. This draft is much deeper than everyone thinks. Some of the guys we'll see going in the late first to early second round include UCLA's Jordan Farmar, Michigan State's Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager, Villanova's Kyle Lowry, Kentucky's Rajon Rondo, and California's Leon Powe. I firmly expect lots of these late first-rounders to become solid rotation players in this league for a very long time.

With the lack of a true superstar, it's even more imperitave that teams draft the right fit for their system. The most important rule in the draft is not draft the more experienced guy or draft production over potential. It's drafting players that will fit your system perfectly. In 2002, Tayshaun Prince was passed over by many teams, but Detroit saw him as a perfect small forward for their system. The Pistons had plenty of specialists, but didn't have one solid all-around player. Had Prince gone earlier to a different team, he would have had higher expectations and would have been asked to be something he wasn't. Similarly, Detroit made a poor decision in selecting Darko Milicic at #2 in 2003. Contrary to what it may seem, Darko was a worthy selection at the time, but he never was a good fit in Detroit. The Pistons should have forseen Darko's confidence getting killed by Larry Brown, a coach famous for not playing rookies. Now in Orlando, Darko looks like he's getting his career turned around. He's a great fit in Orlando because he can focus on what he does best; being a big guy on the perimeter.

5 years from now, the best players in this draft will be the ones in the best situations. With very little separating the top prospects from the mid-first rounders, drafting based on the right fit is going to be even more important. So, without further ado, if there were no trades, this is how the draft should look like.

1. Toronto-Andrea Bargnani: Assuming Toronto keeps the pick (which isn't a done deal), I believe they'll pick Bargnani. With the recent acquisition of Rasho Nesterovic, the Raptors aren't looking to select LaMarcus Aldridge. The Raptors recently hired Maurizio Gherardini, Bargnani's GM, into their organization, so I am guessing they'll take Bargnani. A frontcourt of Bargnani, Chris Bosh, and Charlie Villanueva would certainly be interesting.

2. Chicago-Tyrus Thomas: Personally, I think Aldridge is a better fit, but the Bulls are rumored to be in love with Thomas. Thomas is very raw, but is already a game-changing defensive presence. I believe his offense will develop and he can be a 3/4 type player in this league for a long time.

3. Charlotte-Rudy Gay: I've heard new owner Michael Jordan is enamored with Gay's ability. The biggest knock on Gay is his lack of assertivness, but if he goes to a team that doesn't need him to be the #1 option right away, he should be very effective. If he can learn to be a shooting guard, a lineup of Raymond Felton, Rudy Gay, Gerald Wallace, Sean May, and Emeka Okafor could be reasonably effective.

4. Portland-Adam Morrison: I firmly believe the Blazers will "draft the stache." Darius Miles is unlikely to return, so look for Morrison to play a lot right away. He's a little slow, but not too much unlike Wally Szczerbiak, a guy who has developed into a solid scorer on the wing. Morrison isn't going to be Larry Bird, but he should be reasonably effective.

5. Atlanta-Shelden Williams: Ahh, the Hawks. They've reportedly made a promise to select Shelden Williams with this pick. This is a very awkward situation. Williams has not been projected to be a Top 5 pick, so the fact that Atlanta would make a promise seems odd. Making matters worse, what happens if LaMarcus Aldridge is still available? Would Atlanta still take Williams. The odd thing about this is that Williams is actually a pretty good pick. The Hawks would be reaching if they took a point guard, and Williams fills a need as a physical inside player. But why would Atlanta pick him at 5 if they could probably get him later? There are still more questions than answers here, and it's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

6. Minnesota-Brandon Roy: Many are saying Roy is the best prospect in the draft. This could very easily be a Chris Paul-like situation. I don't think Roy will be a superstar like Paul, but I do believe he has the potential to be a very good scorer. He's not a great fit for any team in the Top 5, so I think he'll be selected here. Those top 5 teams could really regret passing on Roy in 5 years.

7. Boston-LaMarcus Aldridge: I'm predicting an Aldridge slide here. Boston could definetly use another big guy, and they would be extremely lucky to get Aldridge here. If Aldridge doesn't slide here, the Celtics should take Marcus Williams, who would give them a pure point guard. But if Aldridge is still on the board, it's a no-brainer. Look for him to possibly start over Kendrick Perkins or Al Jefferson next season.

8. Houston-Marcus Williams: I actually think Houston will end up trading down (possibly to New Orleans) to gain more assets for their team. But if they don't do that, they should select Williams. Rafaer Alston is not the long-term answer at point guard for this team. Yao and T-Mac could really use a pure point guard like Williams. Like Roy, teams could really regret passing on Williams in a few years.

9. Golden State-Patrick O'Bryant: O'Bryant seemingly came out of nowhere, but scouts have had their eye on him for a long time. He's still very raw, but Golden State can afford to take a chance on him and hope he develops. They have a pretty stacked roster already, but lack a true center. O'Bryant could be the second coming of Jim McIlvane, but considering the other option is Adonal Foyle or an undersized Ike Diogu at the 5 spot, he's worth the risk.

10. Seattle-Randy Foye: One of the most interesting rumors I've seen is Seattle trading this pick to the Suns in a blockbuster trade that includes Shawn Marion and Rashard Lewis swapping places. But if that doesn't happen, I think the Sonics should take Foye. I've been a fan of Foye all season. In my opinion, he was the third best player in the nation last season behind J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison. He reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups coming out of college. Seattle could use him as a backup to both Luke Ridnour and Ray Allen. This could easily be a big-time steal for Seattle.

11. Orlando-Ronnie Brewer: Brewer is a prospect who's stock has really rose under the radar. He tested as the second-best athlete in the Orlando pre-draft combine, which has significantly affected his stock. He reminds me a lot of Josh Howard with the way he plays. He's not a great leaper, but he's got the type of all-around athleticism that Howard had coming out of college. If Orlando gets him here, it would be a really good pick. Brewer should be in the starting lineup with Jameer Nelson for many years to come.

12. New Orleans-Rodney Carney: Carney is an absolute freak athletically. He's probably the most athletic player to come out of college since Richard Jefferson in 2001. Carney's game looks a lot like Jefferson, but he still has to develop his outside shot and his assertivness. New Orleans is a perfect place for his type of game, and I expect him to have many thunderous dunks off Chris Paul passes throughout his career. Also, I guarantee he'll win at least one dunk contest in his career.

13. Philadelphia-Cedric Simmons: The Sixers have absolutely no inside depth behind Chris Webber and Samuel Dalembert. They could go with a point guard, but it's still a bit high to take Rajon Rondo. Simmons is a great shot blocker with developing offensive skills, and he should immediately be the top frontcourt reserve on that team.

14. Utah-J.J. Redick: So this is where J.J. goes. He was all set to go to Houston at #8 before his DUI and back problems, and while he still could go there, Utah seems more likely. Utah's strength is up front with Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and the underrated Mehmet Okur, but lacks an outside shooter. Redick is a perfect fit, and while I don't think he'll ever be a star, he could be a very good player for the Jazz, a la a veteran Jeff Hornacek.

15. New Orleans-Saer Sene: Sene is incredibly raw, but his wingspan is off the charts. His 7 ft, 8 and a half inch wingspan is the longest in NBA history. The Dikembe Mutumbo comparisons are starting to fly in, and while Sene is incredibly raw, the comparisons are fair. Whether Sene turns into Mutumbo, Manute Bol, or worse remains to be seen, but considering New Orleans was playing the 6'9'' P.J. Brown at center, they should take the risk.

16. Chicago-Thabo Sefolosha: You probably haven't heard of him, but scouts are saying Sefolosha is the prototypical wing player. He's ready to play right now and is rising in the draft. The Bulls are in dire need to a tall wing player to go along with the small Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, and Chris Duhon. Sefolosha is a perfect fit for them.

17. Indiana-Rajon Rondo: Jamaal Tinsley is likely to be traded, and Anthony Johnson, despite dominating Jason Kidd in the playoffs, is not the long-term answer at the point. Rondo reminds me a lot of Devin Harris and Tony Parker. He's jet-quick, a good distributor, and a really good rebounder. The biggest knocks on Rondo are his poor jump shot and his inability to lead. Despite those knocks, the positives outweigh the negatives, and Indiana could really use a point guard.

18. Washington-Alexander Johnson: So here's the pick for my Wizards. Nobody's stock has risen higher than Johnson's. He was inconsistent in college for Florida State, but declared for the draft anyway after his junior year. He signed on with trainer David Thorpe, the same guy that made a player out of Udonis Haslem. After only 2 months, he's been mentioned as the best athlete in this draft. He's been killing everyone in individual workouts and has impressed every team he's worked out for. One of those teams is Washington. With Antwan Jamison in the last year of his contract, it's time the Wizards look for a replacement at power forward. Johnson certainly fits the bill. If he's as good as Haslem, the Wizards will have gotten a major steal in this spot.

19. Sacramento-Hilton Armstrong: Brad Miller played way too many minutes this season and wore down late in the year. The Kings really could use a backup center that can give them 15-20 minutes every game. Armstrong has a limited offensive game, but is a very good shot blocker and can run the floor. Sacramento should take him to be Miller's backup next season.

20. New York-Shawne Williams: Williams is a personal favorite of mine. He reminds me a lot of Jared Jeffries with his athetic ability. I saw Williams absolutely shut down Adam Morrison when Memphis played Gonzaga earlier in the year. His offensive game is improving by the minute, and he can play both the 3 or the 4 position. The Knicks could use a guy like Williams to play some off the bench. He won't be the savior, but he'll be a good player.

21. Phoenix-Shannon Brown: Brown is the most underrated player in this draft. He's small, but is so athletic and long that it doesn't seem like it. He developed a great outside shot this season and is developing point guard skills. The Suns will not be able to re-sign Leandro Barbosa with their cap situation, so the pick is really a no-brainer. Brown will score tons of points in Phoenix's system. It won't matter that he's not really a 1 or a 2, because Phoenix makes players out of tweenters (see Boris Diaw, Tim Thomas, Barbosa, Shawn Marion).

22. New Jersey-Olesiky Pecherov: The Nets had lots of success drafting Nenad Kristic in 2002 and waiting for him to develop. The same thing could happen with Pecherov. He's raw and European, but down the road, he should start at power forward for a while.

23. New Jersey-Jordan Farmar: Jason Kidd is getting old and Jacque Vaughn is not a legitimate backup point guard. If they can get Farmar in this spot, it would be a major coup. Farmar's numbers weren't spectaculat, but he was bothered by a sore foot all year. He shocked many by outleaping everyone in the vertical jump at the Orlando combine. I would love to see Farmar at UCLA next year, but he belongs in the first round and is a steal for New Jersey.

24. Memphis-Sergio Rodriguez: This jet-quick Spanish point guard has been mentioned in the same breath as Jason Williams, a former Grizzlie. With Damon Stoudamire hurt and Chucky Atkins leaving via free agency, the Grizzlies really need a point guard. Rodriguez may be unknown, but he very well could be the best in a few years.

25. Cleveland-Kyle Lowry: Lowry is another one of my personal favorites. I believe he could benefit from another year in college, but as it is, he is a very good prospect. He is a great fit for the Cavaliers because he has the potential to dominate a game without scoring. LeBron James would be lucky to have Lowry playing the point in their system. At the very least, Lowry is better than Eric Snow.

26. LA Lakers-Guillermo Diaz: Diaz is a dynamic offensive force that has worked out extremely well before the draft. Another one of David Thorpe's prodegies, Diaz showed great scoring ability for Miami throughout his college career. He's a bit of a tweenter, but the Lakers don't really need a pure point to be successful. Diaz is just as good as Smush Parker and could steal his minutes next year.

27. Phoenix-P.J. Tucker: Tucker is not really a first-round prospect, but remember the motto from the top. The best teams draft the best fits for their system. Tucker has many of the same unique abilities that Boris Diaw has. He's an unconventional undersized forward, and Phoenix is the perfect place to maximize his talents. With Tim Thomas leaving in free agency and Shawne Williams off the board, I like Tucker in this spot for the Suns. If the Lewis-Marion trade happens, this pick goes to Seattle, but if Phoenix keeps it, I'd like to see them take Tucker.

28. Dallas-Kevin Pittsnogle: Again, probably not a first round prospect, but he is a perfect fit. Dallas should lose Keith Van Horn to free agency, so there is a need for a shooting power forward. Pittsnogle is a fantastic shooter than has the ability to defend on the inside. He's basically a Van Horn clone for a third of the price.

29. New York-Joel Freeland: This British power forward has been rising up the charts recently. I can't really tell you much about him, but the Knicks have a knack of taking power forwards in the draft. Freeland is a better option that Josh Boone (too inconsistent) or Leon Powe (injuries and too undersized).

30. Portland-Maurice Ager: They have to be exstatic that Ager is still available. He's not the best fit for the teams ahead of him, but he will end up as a very good NBA player. He reminds me a lot of Morris Peterson coming out of collge, and will find a place behind Morrison and Martell Webster in Portland for years to come.

Well there you have it. It's extremely unlikely that there will not be any trades. In fact, I expect there to be more trades than ever before. Any trades you'd like to see or picks you disagree with? Take it to the comments section.